Voters in Kentucky will decide whether to approve an amendment that would reject abortion rights in the State Constitution. Because Alaska uses ranked choice voting, we may not know the winner until Nov. 23. It seems as if Democrats arent really confident that Bidens economic agenda is really a selling point going into 2024. Read more Incumbent Democratic Senator Tammy Duckworth was first elected in 2016, defeating Republican incumbent Mark Kirk. In 2022, we saw Democrats grow their vote percentages in seven battleground states. California, Michigan, Kentucky and Montana also have abortion referendums on the ballot. This is who we think will win. Explore the full list of Lazaro Gamio In both 2012 and 2018, Manchin far outperformed the expected vote for a Democratic candidate in a state that Donald Trump carried twice by enormous margins. Source: Data compiled by author. Rosenberg was vindicated when Democrats vastly overperformed expectations last year. The polls are now closed in Georgia, South Carolina, Virginia and Vermont, and in parts of Florida and New Hampshire. Note: Includes special elections held during year of election or during previous year. Miles Coleman, and Larry J. Sabato. Steve Sisolak, a Democrat, and Joe Lombardo, the Las Vegas-area sheriff who was endorsed by Donald Trump. In these elections, it was not the unpopularity of the GOP challengers that explained the discrepancies, but Manchins extraordinary popularity as a former governor and relatively conservative Democrat. Heres where we think votes remain. Democrats also won the Governors office, State Senate, and appear poised to take the State Assembly, and voters affirmed abortion rights in the state. Democratic Sen. Mark Kelly has opened a lead over Republican Blake Masters. These charts show how our forecasts have changed over the course of the night. Kathy Hochul claimed victory late Tuesday against Representative Lee Zeldin, a conservative Republican. Where Senate Candidates Outperformed Biden and Trump. Nov. 9, 2022, John Fetterman, the Democratic candidate for Senate, won by a smaller margin than Josh Shapiro, the Democratic candidate for governor. Seth Magaziner, Democrat, wins U.S. House seat to represent Rhode Islands Second Congressional District. Republican candidates won 83 out of 170 contested Senate races between 2012 and 2020, but the prediction model indicates that they should have won 91. Democratic Rep. Sanford Bishop is still favored for reelection, but GOP Gov. Nov. 8, 2022, In Washington State, Senator Patty Murray is facing a strong Republican challenge, though she remains favored to win. Nov. 9, 2022, With more counties nearly finished counting, things keep looking better for Lt. Gov. Particularly in the 2 decisive Georgia Senate runoffs held in early January 2021, Donald Trumps visibility and highly publicized claims of widespread voting fraud involving absentee ballots may have served to motivate Democratic voters while suppressing turnout among some Republican voters concerned that their votes would not be accurately counted. 2022 United States Senate election in Missouri, https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=2022_Missouri_State_Senate_election&oldid=1152538134, 2022 state legislature elections in the United States, Short description with empty Wikidata description, Wikipedia articles in need of updating from April 2023, All Wikipedia articles in need of updating, Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike License 3.0, This page was last edited on 30 April 2023, at 21:09. While Democrats won 94% of contests in states won by the Democratic presidential candidate, Republicans won only 86% of contests in states won by the Republican presidential candidate. Nov. 8, 2022, The shift to the right has been dramatic among counties in Florida reporting nearly all their votes. GOP Rep. Rick Allen never faced a real threat to his reelection. If the two parties split those six seats evenly, Republicans will win a 51-49 majority. Box 400806Charlottesville, VA 22904, 2020 By the Rector and Visitors of the University of Virginia. Officials say the timing of results will depend on how many people return their ballots at the last minute on Election Day. Well also be watching competitive House races in N.C.-13 and Ohio-9. We're constantly speaking with campaigns to form our ratings. , Abigail Spanberger, Democrat, wins re-election to the U.S. House to represent Virginias Seventh Congressional District. Follow the latest election results here , Ga. . Remember me? In the counties where most of the vote is in, Senator Ron Johnson is running ahead of Trump. Click here!, Click here for the National 2022 Senate Forecast, 2024 PollsPresidential ElectionSenateGOP PrimaryDem PrimaryBiden Approval Rating Tracker. U.S. House Calif. 3 R+3 36% Calif. 9 D+17 Nov. 8, 2022, Gov. Nov. 9, 2022, Maryland and Missouri voted to legalize recreational marijuana for people 21 and older, while voters in Arkansas, North Dakota and South Dakota rejected similar measures. While the three majority-Hispanic counties Hendry, Miami-Dade and Osceola shifted the most, Latino turnout tends to drop more in the midterms compared with other groups. Web1 Predictions. Contact Steve at [emailprotected]. The consent submitted will only be used for data processing originating from this website. GOP Rep. Mark Amodei looks safe for reelection after surviving his primary. His Republican challenger, Herschel Walker, is backed by Donald Trump. I will still predict that Democrats will retain the seat, assuming Chris Sununu will run again for governor and a candidate with Trumps blessings runs. Races to watch include those in the 17th, 18th, 19th and 22nd Congressional Districts, as well as the contest for governor. By 9 p.m., the polls will have closed in a majority of states. Possibly. You know you are right when you are hated by the left and the right. We use early returns and polling data to estimate in real time the outcome of the elections for Senate and House control. . , Gov. We rated every race in play in 2022. Tony Evers is seeking a second term in one of the country's most-closely divided states. Were getting results from five states where voters are deciding whether to legalize marijuana. Similarly, Democratic Sen. Maggie Hassan is narrowly ahead of GOP candidate Don Bolduc in New Hampshire, though Bolduc is within striking distance. It's one thing to tell you who's likely to win POLITICO's Election Forecast also tells you why. The polls are now closed in Arizona, Colorado, Minnesota, New York, Wisconsin and several other states. If DeSantis can energize the MAGA base while partially reversing the educational realignment that Trump ushered in, thats a major problem, no? Nov. 9, 2022, Cortez Masto is behind in Nevada at the moment, but there are a lot of votes left in Clark and Washoe, counties home to the state's largest cities. In a previous article in the Crystal Ball, I examined the outlook for the 2022 House and Senate elections at the national level based on the generic ballot forecasting model. Alicia Parlapiano Our Senate forecast is based on past results, polling data and the current vote count. Vermont- this state has consistently voted for Democrat senators and the incumbent Patrick Leahy has been serving since 1974. 0 seconds of 4 minutes, 49 seconds Volume 90%. The latest Last updated Nov. 8, 2022 Our final forecast for the Senate is a toss-up, with Republicans slightly favored over Democrats. Maggie Astor Nevadas Senate race is rated a tossup by the Cook Political Report. Copyright The Economist Newspaper Limited 2022. All rights reserved. Democratic Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto faces a tough race against Republican Adam Laxalt. Steve Shepard, our chief forecaster, has settled on four core principles In order to estimate the contributions of state partisanship, incumbency, and election timing to the outcomes of Senate elections between 2012 and 2020, I conducted a multiple regression analysis with the Democratic candidates margin as the dependent variable. The reason we need to do what youre describing which is to go into places that werent available to us before is that we need this victory to be as big as possible. Much like the safe Republican states, the following states are a sure-shot for Democrats. I then applied the findings from these earlier elections to the 35 contests taking place this year in order to predict their outcomes. . GOP Gov. Our 2022 election forecast is final and no longer updating. For the open Senate seat in Ohio, J.D. Nov. 10, 2022, As of noon Eastern time, Democrats have won 190 House seats, Republicans have won 208, and 37 are still undecided. Meanwhile, Republicans are in the hunt in Colorado and Washington State though both are rated Lean Democratic. It would take a larger GOP wave than is currently apparent for Democratic Sens. Nov. 9, 2022, Alaska has competitive races for both the Senate and the House, neither of which is a straightforward Democrat-versus-Republican affair. RCP Average 0 Days to Election Day. Polls just closed in 19 states and Washington, D.C. Alicia Parlapiano *The vice president, Kamala Harris, breaks 50-50 ties for the Democrats. And Kansas Democratic governor, Laura Kelly, is in a tight re-election race, as is Gov. , Vicente Gonzalez, Democrat, wins re-election to the U.S. House to represent Texas 34th Congressional District. Vance, a Republican and the Hillbilly Elegy author, is very likely to win Ohios Senate race, according to our estimates. Our election forecast is based on estimates for the outcomes of all Senate and House races. Read more Lauren Boebert, incumbent in Colorados 3rd district, is in an unexpectedly close race in what was considered a safe Republican district. Despite endless hopeful invocations of but polls show that people like our positions, the truth is that the Democratic Party has been pulled far enough left that even lots of non-crazy people find us just plain scary something that Fox News takes vigorous advantage of. Looking for the Live House Forecast? Republican Mehmet Oz is seeking to close a deficit with Democrat John Fetterman in the open-seat race. Alicia Parlapiano 2 References. Vance, the author and venture capitalist who is endorsed by Donald Trump, is competing with Representative Tim Ryan, a Democrat. Unfortunately, the 60 seat goal is out of reach. We also have a Live Forecast for the House.if(typeof ez_ad_units!='undefined'){ez_ad_units.push([[728,90],'racetothewh_com-medrectangle-3','ezslot_3',639,'0','0'])};__ez_fad_position('div-gpt-ad-racetothewh_com-medrectangle-3-0'); We are using the Associated Press's election calls to take races off the board. I talked with Rosenberg, who writes the Hopium Chronicles newsletter on Substack, about his optimism for 2024. Tonight: follow live results and our forecast from Georgia as the final Senate seat in the 2022 midterm elections is decided. See the rest of our predictions. However, there was a noticeable discrepancy between the success rates of Republican and Democratic candidates in states won by their partys presidential candidate. Voters in Kentucky narrowly rejected an amendment to the State Constitution that would have said there is no right to abortion in their state. Its about 15 months for the mid-term elections in the United States. Third, he would somehow have to obscure the rightward lurch he just went through in the current legislative session the six-week abortion ban, the permitless carry, the assaults on public education and diversity. Click here. Albert Sun Rep. Ted Budd of North Carolina, a Trump-backed conservative, beat Cheri Beasley, a Democrat, to capture retiring Senator Richard Burr's seat. Redistricting will change everything. Nate Cohn However, Republicans are also defending seats in Ohio and Wisconsin, in which their predicted victory margin is just over 10 points, indicating that these seats could potentially be in play. The party that wins two of the The 2022 Missouri State Senate election took We expect the remaining vote that will decide control of Congress will take days, if not weeks, to count. Lazaro Gamio Brian Kemp gained more votes compared to Trump in 2020 all across Georgia, beating Stacey Abrams by a more than seven-point margin. Ron DeSantis winning the early vote in Miami-Dade County which voted for Hillary Clinton by +29 points just six years ago is yet another sign of growing Republican strength among Hispanic voters. . The Times estimates the share of votes reported and the number of remaining votes, based on historic turnout data and reporting from results providers. 465 Crestwood Drive P.O. *. Nov. 9, 2022, Democrats and Republicans each need to win three more competitive Senate seats to win control of the chamber (in addition to the races they are expected to win most easily). Senate elections have become firmly yoked to their states presidential leanings. The results of this seat-by-seat analysis were consistent with the national forecast from the generic ballot model. 2020 comparison maps exclude places where third-party candidates won more than 5 percent of the vote. See the Senate forecast * This is FiveThirtyEights best guess as to who the nominee will be, based on an analysis of incumbency, polls, fundraising, previous Tonight, our election forecast will show live estimates for which party is favored to win control in the Senate and House. Maura Healey, the newly elected Democratic governor of Massachusetts is the first openly lesbian woman to be elected governor in the United States. Today, Democrats control the U.S. Senate by the slimmest of margins Vice President Kamala Harris serves as the tiebreaking vote in a chamber thats divided 50-50. Finally, there is a clear midterm effect on Senate elections, with candidates from the party occupying the White House experiencing an average penalty of 5.4 points of margin. Though Republicans have put forward weak candidates in battleground states like Pennsylvania, Arizona, and Georgia, the wind is behind their backs heading into November 8. We use polling where appropriate, but we always factor in our understanding of the pollster's quality. Representative Tom Malinowski, a second-term incumbent, conceded his race for re-election to his Republican opponent, Tom Kean Jr. Everyone covered the Democratic Party being in a defensive crouch last year. at POLITICO, Democrats launched a late ad campaign hitting Republican Eric Aadland, who is seeking to become first alphabetically in congressional history by last name. Looking for The forecast will shift to account for which party is consistently doing better across the country compared to our projections, and calculate the chance both have of winning the majority. Latest predictions for the House 2022 Elections, updated daily. As more races are called, the uncertainty around these estimates will narrow. But 2022 will be a steeper climb. Lazaro Gamio , Emilia Sykes, Democrat, wins U.S. House seat to represent Ohios 13th Congressional District. Republicans won just over half (17 of 33) of the open seat contests during these years. These are our estimates for which party will win control of the Senate, and the estimated number of seats won by each party. Nov. 8, 2022. It remains to be seen whether any of the current crop of GOP candidates, many of whom are running as staunch Trump loyalists and some of whom have endorsed the Big Lie of the stolen 2020 election, will suffer a similar fate. John Fetterman defeated the celebrity TV host Dr. Mehmet Oz, flipping Pennsylvanias Senate seat to the Democrats. Contact Steve at [emailprotected]. From this video, its very clear that Joe Biden is going to go there. The facts are that the country is better off. ADHD is an illness, not a lifestyle. Voters in Vermont decided in favor of including abortion protections in their state constitution. 2 We'll always be transparent about why we're making a certain rating. In Virginia, the performances of Democratic incumbents in the 2nd and 7th districts may offer early indications of how the party will fare in House races overall. What Election Day looks like based on polls alone, What Election Day looks like based on polls, fundraising, past voting patterns and more, What Election Day looks like when we add experts ratings to the Classic forecast. If it is a moderate Republican candidate like Chris Sununu, there is a chance of New Hampshire flipping red. Nov. 8, 2022, Gov. Eight of those counties that voted for Biden in 2020 shifted 16 points to the right in the race for governor, and 12 points in the Senate race. In the current era, Democrats generally have to win contests in Republican-leaning states in order to win a majority of seats in the Senate. The Democrats should not focus much attention on these states and instead focus on the other states assuming they are on a mission to secure 60 seats, to prevent filibustering of bills. The Associated Press has not yet called the race. The Democrats need to win roughly twice as many of the most competitive districts as Republicans to keep control of the House. Lazaro Gamio Speaking of DeSantiss rightward lurch, Bidens reelection video cites GOP book bans and attacks on LGBTQ rights as threats to American freedom and equality. Senator Raphael Warnock of Georgia, a Democrat, won a runoff election to defeat Herschel Walker, a Trump-backed Republican and former football star. Louisiana the reason I will not put Louisiana in sure-shot Republican is Louisiana does have a record of voting Democrat in gubernatorial elections. 465 Crestwood DriveP.O. Eight counties that voted Yes on the proposal also voted for the Republican candidate for governor, Tudor Dixon. , Kathy Hochul, New Yorks first female governor, beat Rep. Lee Zeldin in the states closest race in decades. The results are displayed in Table 5. * Candidates need more than 50% of the total vote to win outright, which is reflected in the win probabilities. Arizonas closely watched races for Senate and governor remained too close to call in the state, where 400,000 ballots in Maricopa County await counting. Ron DeSantis could seek to use a decisive 2022 victory into a springboard for a national campaign in 2024. Figure 1: Scatterplots of seat change by predicted seat change in House and Senate midterm elections, 1946-2018 Source: Data compiled by author Conditional forecasts for the 2022 midterms NV ) Create Your Own Map. New Hampshire- It is a state of predominantly moderate whites. Vance defeated Rep. Tim Ryan after a competitive campaign for Ohios open Senate seat. Clickme! Alicia Parlapiano The data in Table 1 indicate that a couple of the key factors influencing the outcomes of Senate contests during these years were incumbency and state presidential partisanship. Polls are now closed in Hawaii. We and our partners share information on your use of this website to help improve your experience. Ron DeSantis, a hard-right conservative, is facing Representative Charlie Crist, a former Republican governor who switched parties. Senator Lisa Murkowski, a Republican, is facing a strong challenge from the Trump-endorsed Kelly Tshibaka. Given the narrow size of recent Senate majorities, that underperformance is quite significant. Visit. You write that Bidens argument for reelection is simple: Hes done a good job, and the country is better off. Nov. 8, 2022, Its still early, but Fetterman is running ahead of Biden in five Pennsylvania counties that have reported nearly all of their votes. Nov. 8, 2022, In Kentucky, voters will decide whether to approve a constitutional amendment that would effectively ensure the implementation of a near-total abortion ban. Heres where we think votes remain. Ohio. Democratic Gov. Albert Sun First, DeSantis has to win the primary, which doesnt look very likely at this point. Ignoring the jokes of Trumps August reinstatement, both Democrats and Republicans have started their ground work. Nov. 8, 2022, Republicans must win just 19 competitive seats to retake majority control from the Democrats. Odds displayed in the graphics may not match numeric odds due to rounding. The red wave did not materialize, and election night ended with many close races that will be decided by mail-in ballots. The reason I would even consider a chance for Republicans is similar to Louisiana for Democrats. Box 400806 Charlottesville, VA 22904. Weve made future-oriented investments in infrastructure and tackling climate change. Albert Sun that guide every prediction he makes. The outcomes of the 6-8 contests that will most likely determine control of the U.S. Senate in the next Congress will depend to a large extent on the individual candidates and their campaigns. We work hard to make predictions that are both accurate and defensible. We just got all the way up to 55 percent in the Wisconsin Supreme Court race. . Click here! (Disclosure: hes a friend.) Lazaro Gamio Yet Democrats often refrain from challenging right-wing culture-warring, as if they believe those are losing issues. Kevin Drum (July 3, 2021). No Electoral College majority, House decides election. *, Maine Nov. 9, 2022, More than 210 Republicans who questioned the 2020 election have won seats in the U.S. House and Senate and in state races for governor, secretary of state and attorney general, according to results as of 12 p.m. Eastern on Wednesday. Democrats are hoping to pick up seats in Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and Ohio, while Republicans have pinned their hopes on races in Arizona, Georgia, and Nevada. Follow along after polls close. In Floridas closely watched governors race, Gov. Polls Underestimated. GOP Sen. Ron Johnson is running for a third term making him the only Republican seeking reelection in a state President Biden won in 2020. In these midterms, New York is an unexpected battleground. Three independent candidates Bernie Sanders (VT), Angus King (ME) and Greg Orman (KS) are classified as Democrats. There is also an unexpectedly competitive Senate race in Utah between Senator Mike Lee, a Republican, and Evan McMullin, an independent. Current House. That leaves Arizona, Georgia and Pennsylvania in the middle. Every day, it simulates the election 50,000 times. Terms of service | Privacy Policy | Do not sell my info | Notice to California Residents, Design & development: Andrew Briz, Beatrice Jin, Arjun Kakkar, Andrew McGill, Allan James Vestal, Audience & strategy: Caroline Amenabar, Annie Bryan, Kam Burns, Isabel Dobrin, Annie Yu, Elana Zak. Is the challenger struggling to raise money? Here is a map of the states where one of its seats is due for election. Redistricting will change everything. Democratic Sen. Raphael Warnock and Republican Herschel Walker are on a November collision course in the most closely divided state of the 2020 presidential election. Results Maggie Astor Half of the Senate's thirty-four seats in the Missouri Senate were up for election every two years, with each Senator serving four-year terms.[1]. The Associated Press has not yet called the race. You deserve to hear our thinking. The polls just closed in Montana, Utah and parts of Nevada, Idaho and Oregon. In North Carolinas Senate race, Representative Ted Budd, a Trump-endorsed Republican, is very likely to win, according to our estimates. The results are displayed in Table 2. WebDemocrats will hold 51 seats in the Senate, providing the party with a majority that likely wont have to rely as heavily on Vice President Kamala Harris tie-breaking vote. We and our partners use data for Personalised ads and content, ad and content measurement, audience insights and product development. We use polling where appropriate, but we always factor in our understanding of the pollster's quality. I've collected a few races I think you should keep your eyeon. WebRacetotheWH has in-depth predictions for every Governor, Senate and House Race, polling for the 2024 primaries, and a Bidens approval rating tracker. Throughout the 2022 elections, Democratic strategist Simon Rosenberg offered up a counterintuitive diagnosis: Confident GOP predictions of a red wave werent just wrong, they were designed to deenergize Democratic voters with negative sentiment. He insisted Democrats would ignore this script and that MAGA extremism would alienate the mainstream. Toggle Predictions subsection 1.1 Statewide. These results suggest that Republicans have a slight edge in the 2022 Senate elections when it comes to potential seat swing based on the fundamentals in these races. Over the past decade, however, we have seen that Republicans have blown several opportunities to pick up Democratic seats by nominating candidates who were either ideologically extreme or weighed down by personal controversies. RCP Senate Map Race Changes. Weve demonstrated that in the current political environment, we can grow the coalition. Lazaro Gamio While it is not enough to prevent filibustering, the 4 rational Republicans (Collins, Murkowski, Romney and Sasse) shall helped by preventing unwanted filibuster abuse. Democratic Sen. Raphael Warnock and Republican Herschel Walker are on a November collision course in the most closely divided state of the 2020 presidential election. Its important that our goal is not just to win the election but to have it feel like a profound repudiation of MAGA. Much is riding on the 2022 midterm elections: the fate of President Joe Bidens agenda, leadership in state capitals across the country and a potential 2024 comeback by former President Donald Trump. Nov. 14, 2022, Three Republican House candidates who have supported QAnon underperformed compared with Trump, despite most House Republicans outperforming the former president. Were tracking the remaining uncalled House races, and the most recently called races, as states continue to count the remaining votes. Based on the fundamentals of state partisanship, incumbency, and the national political environment, Republicans have a good chance to pick up at least a seat and take back control of the upper chamber. Vance won Ohio handily even as almost every part of the state voted more for Democrats than they did in 2020. All rights reserved. Lauren Leatherby Updated Every Day with the Latest Polling. Throughout the 2022 elections, Democratic strategist Simon Rosenberg offered up a counterintuitive diagnosis: Confident GOP predictions of a red wave State presidential partisanship was also a powerful predictor of Senate election results during these years, reflecting the increasing nationalization of these contests. Heres how POLITICOs are different: Weve demystified the midterms taking you inside the races to explore the macro- and micro-trends driving the campaign. Note: Seat estimates may not sum to the total number of seats because of third-party candidates. In Colorado, a measure to decriminalize certain psychedelics is close but yet to be decided. Nov. 8, 2022, Senator Raphael Warnock is out with an early lead in Georgia, but it could all be just a mirage. Republicans may have cost themselves the chance to flip this open seat by picking an extreme nominee, Doug Mastriano. Tonight: follow live results and our forecast from Georgia as the final Senate seat in the 2022 midterm elections is decided. The GOP is still favored to hold open seats in North Carolina and Ohio, rated Lean Republican.. We value on-the-ground sourcing above everything else. Based on the accuracy of the predictions for elections between 2012 and 2020, we can have a high degree of confidence in the outcomes of races in which the predicted margin is greater than 10 points but less confidence if the predicted margin is less than 10 points. Based on current events and the understanding that senators are elected by the states popular vote rather electoral districts, I will make my predictions. For that to be the case, Rosenberg must be right about his core idea: Despite pundits tendency to overestimate MAGA, its rise has given Democrats a major opening to expand their coalition. Vance in the returns, but almost all of the results are early votes, which we expect to disproportionately favor Democrats. More than 200 Republicans who questioned or denied the 2020 election results have won in the midterms so far. Nate Cohn To view the purposes they believe they have legitimate interest for, or to object to this data processing use the vendor list link below. Republican Mehmet Oz is seeking to close a deficit with Democrat John Fetterman in the open-seat race. | Privacy Policy, The Outlook for the 2022 Senate Elections: A State-by-State Analysis. Several interesting patterns are evident in these data. Current Senate Wisconsins Senate race is leaning toward Senator Ron Johnson, his chambers most endangered Republican incumbent, according to our estimates. We and our partners use cookies to Store and/or access information on a device. Gretchen Whitmer's poll numbers have been more durable than other Democrats'. Hes outperforming Biden across the state and is currently up 8 points in counties that were the closest in 2020. We'll always be transparent about why we're making a certain rating. Here are the results that mattered most for abortion access.
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